If you are an AI investor, do not miss this. The 7 biggest AI companies have committed $4.5 trillion to future data center leases and purchase deals that do not show up as debt on their balance sheets. Only about 15% of their total obligations are actually on the books, according to J.P. Morgan. Look at the gap: Google: $113B on the books, $1.08T off Anthropic: $8B on, $865B off Meta: $110B on, $810B off Microsoft: $110B on, $575B off Nvidia: $37B on, $422B off Amazon: $223B on, $419B off Oracle: $157B on, $322B off Anthropic's off book commitments are over 100 times bigger than its recorded debt. The credit market has started to notice. The cost to insure the debt of these AI companies against default is rising fast. Hedge funds have also cut their exposure by 8%, the biggest pullback since 2016. And after the midterms, up to 37.5 GW of data centers planned for 2028 could be paused by new state rules. These companies signed trillions of dollars in future bills, betting AI demand keeps growing. What happens if it doesn't?
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