Has the bull market in tech stocks ended? What will be the next hot sector? The broader U.S. equity market appeared stable in July, yet beneath the surface, turmoil brewed. The S&P 500 declined just 0.13% for the month, closing July 31 up 0.7%, with a long lower shadow that pierced multiple moving averages before rebounding. Currently, daily moving averages are intertwined and flat, forming a classic rectangular consolidation range. However, the monthly trend remains extremely strong—July’s volatility didn’t even touch the 5-month MA, preserving the long-term bullish structure. Though the market seems to be trading sideways, Nasdaq recorded its worst July performance in nearly two years, while bond yields surged sharply. Yesterday, South Korea’s stock market rallied sharply during trading hours; SK Hynix surged 30%, posting its largest single-day gain since its inception. Previously, excessive leverage by Korean retail investors and speculative capital triggered a chain reaction of long liquidations and cascading sell-offs. Once highly leveraged long and short positions were fully unwound, selling pressure vanished overnight. Coupled with positive news that major U.S. tech giants increased—not reduced—their capital expenditures, this fueled a powerful rebound in large-cap stocks. On July 31, the memory chip sector underperformed: Micron fell 5%, SanDisk fell 5%, and SK Hynix dropped 3.5%, pressured by weaker-than-expected earnings from Japan’s Kioxia. Meanwhile, the four major tech giants performed strongly: Amazon surged 15%, Google recovered all its post-earnings losses, and Microsoft and Meta rebounded—supporting the overall bullish trend. Some ask: If both Amazon and Google are seeing massive growth in cloud services, why are their stock movements so different? Amazon clearly disclosed actual revenue figures from AI and its in-house chips: both AI and custom chip businesses now generate annualized revenues exceeding $25 billion, growing at triple-digit rates. It explicitly stated that current data center investments stem from capacity constraints—demand is outpacing capital spending—providing the market with exceptional certainty. Google, by contrast, lacks specific details on AI monetization. Although its cloud business is growing rapidly, it does not separately break out AI’s contribution. Moreover, some of its computing power is consumed internally by proprietary models (Gemini, search, ad optimization) and cannot be fully converted into direct cloud revenue. Google Cloud’s base is relatively smaller; high growth from a low base is perceived by the market as less substantial than Amazon’s. Regarding index levels, QQQ faces strong resistance between 693 and 724. After climbing to 695 on Friday, it quickly retreated to 680, indicating strong profit-taking by bulls—this remains a bounce, not a reversal. The S&P 500 will be the key indicator next week, as earnings reports from AMD and other tech and consumer stocks are critical. If tech earnings hold up and drive upward revisions to S&P 500 EPS, a breakout above 756—setting a new all-time high—would officially signal the end of this market correction and provide a major boost to Nasdaq bulls. The key support level is 727; a break below would confirm the start of a bearish downtrend. Regarding my own recent analysis: I suggested to the community three days ago that we buy SanDisk and Micron for a bounce, but advised taking off 50% after profits were secured. Two days ago, I mentioned SMH as worth considering; yesterday, as it rallied, community members took profits. For now, I remain cautious—capital remains allocated to SPY. If you feel compelled to trade further, consider allocating slightly to GLD, since gold is also a viable long-term asset. Does this mean Micron is done? Not necessarily. Traditional thinking holds that CPUs are superior to memory—but today, memory—particularly HBM (High Bandwidth Memory)—has become an absolute necessity for NVIDIA GPUs to function. The CPU market is currently dismal: Intel faces process delays and massive losses in foundry operations, yet still trades at a 100x P/E ratio. Meanwhile, Micron—facing severe HBM supply shortages—trades at just a 6x P/E. This pricing misalignment presents an excellent opportunity for outsized returns in the second half of the year. The global AI hardware revolution will inevitably proceed forward. Even NVIDIA’s “third-tier” chips remain 18 to 24 months ahead of competitors—a brutal technological gap. For every $1 spent on NVIDIA chips, an additional $8–$10 in downstream spending is generated across the entire ecosystem: CPUs, memory, telecom equipment, data center construction, cooling systems, and energy infrastructure. Microsoft and Palantir are riding the tailwind; legacy software firms like Salesforce and IBM are seeing budget cuts. In summary: AI-driven consumption is far from speculative. #USStocks #TechStocks #AICalculations #Semiconductors #HBM #Gold