This was a note I wrote two years ago about memory semiconductors—back then I had only around 200 or 300 followers, so the views were absolutely terrible. Anyway, as I mentioned back then, memory companies’ stock prices tend to have large profit fluctuations, and as a result, their stock volatility is inevitably high. It’s true that there’s currently an “expectation” that memory is no longer a cyclical industry due to AI demand and LTA—but that’s still just an “expectation.” The key question is whether this will actually be proven.
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