Industry outlook generally expects shortages to persist until 2027–2028. - Micron (9/30 earnings): Supply-demand imbalance in 2027–2028 will be more severe than this year; most HBM volumes for 2027 have already been contracted. - JPMorgan also forecasts shortages through 2028 (10/14). - Reason: It takes 2–3 years to build new fabs, and most new production capacity is being allocated to AI-related products such as HBM. SK Hynix’s Yongin Site 1 is scheduled for completion in 2027, and Samsung’s Pyeongtaek P5 is targeted for operation in 2028.
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