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On Wednesday, the morning after the vote, $MSFT rose 6.7% and $AMZN 6.1%. $NBIS fell 6.7%, $IREN 11.2% and $CIFR 20.0%. Same industry, same news. The split ran along one line: who already has buildings with power in them, and who still needs a permit and a loan to get there. Voters in 10 states weighed 41 local data center measures on Nov 3. They sided against the project in all but one. Ohio had 21 of them in 18 towns. A Citadel estimate cited by NYSE's Michael Reinking puts about 45 gigawatts across 350 projects at risk in four states that elected Democratic governors. The hyperscalers rallied on the idea that a permit freeze slows their cash burn without anyone having to announce a cut. The neoclouds fell because their whole model is turning future capacity into revenue on borrowed money, and the future just got slower. Then Thursday took everything down together: the Nasdaq 100 lost 6.3%, its worst day since April 2025. My read: a veto on new supply raises the value of what's already built and energized. It hurts the pipeline. I own both kinds, $AMZN and $GOOG on one side, $IREN, $NBIS and $CIFR on the other, and I'm not adding to the second group until Nebius reports on Nov 12. At Friday's close I took some gains off the AI names to hold more cash. Same thesis, smaller bet. What would change my mind: a hyperscaler cutting its own capex guide. That's a demand problem. A town saying no is a supply problem, and supply problems pay whoever already has supply.

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