source avatar园长|YuanMan

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$MRNA stock has hit a new all-time high, up 700% this year. Last week, you regretted not selling at the peak—this week, it surged to a new yearly high. On Friday, earnings were released: the market expected a loss, but it unexpectedly posted a profit of $1.62 billion. Guidance was raised to 15%–25%. The stock shot up immediately. Just on Thursday, it had dropped 7% along with the broader market—if anyone sold then, they’d be kicking themselves. Why the sudden profitability? COVID-19 vaccines sold better than expected overseas. Many assumed the pandemic was over, yet $1.31 billion in revenue was generated, with $533 million coming from international markets. R&D spending was cut from $2.9 billion to $2.7 billion, saving enough to account for half the profit. Still, for the first nine months of this year, $MRNA remained in the red, with a net loss of $1.96 billion and $2.7 billion in operating cash burn. This quarter was merely a slight recovery. Now, everyone is waiting for the cancer vaccine to pick up the baton—still not generating revenue yet. What matters more than this quarter’s profit is management’s bold decision to raise guidance. Next Thursday, they’ll detail how commercializing and profiting from cancer vaccines will become routine. If cancer vaccines can truly be scaled, the stock could rocket even higher.

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