https://t.co/pVqIyFTXXi [Emergency] Is a Revival of Japanese Stocks Near? What’s Really Happening Amid the Plunge #nisa #NikkeiAverage #USStocks #WealthBuilding by Masaki Uekawa [MBA Holder, 31 Published Business Books] #AISummary Nikkei Average Surges 1,684 Points; Recovery of AI and Semiconductor Stocks; Risks Ahead 🔳 Nikkei Average Rises 1,684 Points, Regains 60,000 Level On November 10, the Nikkei Average rose 1,684 points to reclaim the 60,000 level, marking the second consecutive strong rebound. Buying activity accelerated, led by AI and semiconductor-related stocks. The speaker noted that market sentiment is gradually improving. 🔳 Surge in Trading Volume Signals Market Revival Trading volume on the Tokyo Stock Exchange reached approximately ¥13 trillion—significantly exceeding recent levels of ¥7–8 trillion and marking the highest volume in about six months. The speaker analyzed that investor trading appetite has revived, and the previous sense of market stagnation is fading. 🔳 U.S. Semiconductor Stock Surge Lifts Japanese Equities The NASDAQ rose 2.74%, and the SOX Semiconductor Index surged 6.85%. As U.S. tech stocks rebounded, capital flowed back into Japan’s AI and semiconductor sectors. The speaker considers the SOX Index a leading indicator for the Nikkei Average. 🔳 Tonight’s U.S. CPI Is a Critical Market Turning Point The upcoming release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is identified as the most significant factor influencing future stock prices. If inflation exceeds market expectations, fears of additional Fed rate hikes could intensify, potentially triggering another equity market decline. 🔳 Caution Against a Third Phase Decline and Selling Climax If this sharp rebound proves temporary, selling pressure could resume, potentially leading to a final wave of panic selling. However, the rally could also continue; at this stage, it is premature to confirm a market bottom. 🔳 Recovery Above the 200-Day Moving Average Is Crucial The Nikkei Average and TOPIX are closely watched for a recovery above their 200-day moving averages. A breakout and sustained hold above this level would reinforce confidence in further upside; failure to break through could lead to another decline. 🔳 Trump’s Denial of Further Iran Strikes Boosts Risk Appetite According to the speaker, President Trump’s statement that further strikes on Iran are unnecessary eased concerns over Middle East tensions. Combined with falling oil prices, this encouraged capital to flow back into risk assets, supporting Japanese equities. 🔳 Risks of Escalating Middle East Tensions Remain In addition to U.S.-Iran tensions, heightened military tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen require vigilance. If conflict expands to involve neighboring countries, rising oil prices could negatively impact equity markets. 🔳 Expectations for Relaxation of U.S. AI Data Center Regulations The speaker explained that fears of stricter U.S. Democratic-led data center regulations contributed to recent tech stock declines. If regulations are implemented gradually or remain unchanged, further capital inflows into AI-related stocks are possible. 🔳 SoftBank Group Rises 13% SoftBank Group surged approximately 13%, leading the Nikkei’s rebound. The speaker attributed this to speculation about Anthropic’s upcoming IPO but warned that negative reports regarding losses in its U.S. data center operations may pressure tomorrow’s share price. 🔳 Semiconductor-Linked Stocks Surge: Kioxia and Others Kioxia rose about 9–10%, while Tokyo Electron and Advantest also gained. Capital returned to AI-related stocks that had previously been heavily sold off, following the rebound in U.S. semiconductor stocks. 🔳 South Korean and Taiwanese Semiconductor Stocks Also Rise South Korea’s KOSPI advanced, led by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Taiwanese equities also rebounded, indicating that the buying rebound extended beyond Japan to encompass the broader Asian semiconductor sector. 🔳 Domestic and Defensive Stocks Face Selling Pressure As capital flows back into tech stocks, companies such as Ajinomoto, Kikkoman, Bandai Namco, Nitori, ORIX, and Oriental Land experienced selling pressure. The speaker suggested that investor funds are shifting from defensive to growth stocks. 🔳 Caution Over Kawasaki Heavy Industries’ Weak Performance While Mitsubishi Heavy Industries rose in the defense sector, Kawasaki Heavy Industries fell about 3%. Its price action has been notably weak, erasing prior gains; the speaker expressed concern over its relative underperformance. 🔳 JT Shows Signs of Stabilizing After Sharp Decline JT had been under sustained selling pressure due to external factors but recently showed signs of stabilization after a gap-down decline. The speaker suggested that negative news may have been largely priced in, and the stock is beginning to find equilibrium. 🔳 Shiseido Raises Operating Profit Forecast to ¥87 Billion Shiseido raised its operating profit forecast for the current fiscal year to ¥87 billion. The company’s improved profitability—driven by management restructuring, structural reforms, and cost-cutting—has fueled optimism for further share price gains. 🔳 Shiseido Signals a Shift Toward an UptrendShiseido’s stock price has risen above its 200-day moving average, with the 25-day, 75-day, and 200-day moving averages all turning upward. The speaker analyzed that investor sentiment is gradually shifting from cyclical recovery stocks to momentum stocks, emphasizing upward momentum. 🔳 Honda raised its net profit forecast to ¥500 billion Honda announced an upward revision of its net profit forecast for the current period to ¥500 billion. Despite incurring approximately ¥520 billion in special losses due to a reassessment of its EV strategy, the company has restored profitability through cost reductions and price pass-throughs. 🔳 Honda also showing signs of a trend reversal in stock price Although Honda’s stock price declined 1.62% on the day, its 75-day and 200-day moving averages have begun turning upward. The speaker views this as evidence of a transition into an uptrend, based on both improving fundamentals and technical price action. 🔳 Speaker’s portfolio rebounded sharply The speaker explained that they manage five separate brokerage accounts, tailored to different investment strategies and time horizons. Following this two-business-day rebound, the total unrealized gains across all accounts are estimated to have increased by approximately ¥15–18 million. However, they noted that this recovery still only offsets prior losses. 🔳 Beware of profit-taking after a sharp market rebound The Nikkei 225 rose about ¥3,000 over two business days, creating signs of short-term overheating. The speaker indicated they will wait for the CPI release before making decisions on profit-taking or position adjustments. 🔳 Emphasis on cash management in preparation for further declines Although the speaker established some buy positions during this downturn, they maintained cash reserves to prepare for potential further declines. Even with available margin trading capacity, they avoided excessive risk and adopted a phased investment approach responsive to market movements. 🔳 Three conditions needed for sustained upside The speaker highlighted three critical factors for continued market gains: a smooth CPI release in the U.S., strong earnings results from Japanese companies, and stability in the Middle East. If these conditions align, upside potential could expand significantly, with the Nikkei 225 potentially targeting 70,000 again. 🔳 Distinguishing cyclical recovery stocks from value traps Even if a stock appears undervalued, there is a significant difference in investment outcomes between cyclical stocks poised for earnings recovery and value traps that remain cheap while stagnating. The speaker emphasized the importance of judgment based on past market experience and strict stop-loss discipline when forecasts prove incorrect. 🔳 Market bottom depends on CPI and U.S. equity trends While the speaker viewed the recent sharp rebound positively, they concluded that a full return to a sustained bull market has not yet been confirmed. They plan to monitor U.S. CPI data, the SOX Index, and the direction of the 200-day moving average to prepare for both potential further declines and continued upward momentum.