🚨US MARKET VOLATILITY IS BUILDING BENEATH THE SURFACE: The Nations SkewDex has jumped to 64 points, its highest level since April. The gauge measures demand for tail-risk hedges, or how much investors are willing to pay for protection against a sharp market selloff compared with normal daily moves. This comes even as the VIX remains below 20 points, suggesting broad market fear is still subdued, while demand for downside protection is quietly increasing. AI-related stocks are also seeing larger swings, with the usual relationship between rising stock prices and rising implied volatility starting to break down. This is notable because the popular strategy of shorting hyperscalers while owning semiconductor stocks had dominated AI positioning for much of the year, until last week, when both groups sold off together. The shift suggests growing concerns over whether hyperscaler AI spending will generate sufficient returns, a question that will soon be tested as Alphabet reports today, followed by Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon next week. Put simply, current valuations leave little room for disappointment across AI-related stocks. Calm on the surface, rising stress underneath, this market may be less comfortable than it appears.
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