source avatarPaul Mampilly🇺🇸

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The 10 yr US Tsy bond hitting can be compared to the P/E of a stock. How. Just imagine its a zero growth company that pays a guaranteed dividend. To calculate the P/E we just invert the yield. So at 5%, that's a P/E of 20. Now, a US Tsy bond, has no default risk because the US government can always issue more US Dollars. However, inflation is a definite risk. Are there stocks with a 20 P/E that have little to no growth we can compare a 10 yr US Tsy bond to? Yes. $MCD is a stock that loosely fits this category. $MCD trades for a 20 P/E with a dividend yield of 3%. $MCD could in the future can likely grow its income and dividend yield. However, right now, compared to the 10 yr tsy bond, it looks like a bad deal. And this kind of analysis can be done on many of the "bond substitute" stocks $PEP $YUM $CPB $CLX etc that people piled into during the ZIRP market that followed the 2008 GFC. However today, the markets are saying these are bad deals. That's because while companies "could" grow more, they could also go bankrupt. Many of them raised prices aggressively in the post covid period because of shortages & high demand. Then with the higher debt loads they took on during ZIRP to juice dividends/buybacks, they are exposed to higher interest rates. Not a buyer of these stocks as they make 52 wk lows and as systematic selling drives them lower.

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