Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston said in a Friday interview in Tokyo that Lumentum’s optical components are nearly “sold out” through early 2029. Six months ago, Hurlston stated that Lumentum expected to sell out its capacity by 2028. Key points: 1) The sold-out window has extended further. From being sold out through 2028 six months ago, the company now indicates it is fully sold out through early 2029—an extension of approximately one year. 2) Capacity expansion is falling far behind demand. Hurlston admitted, “We are really trying to catch up and increase capacity as quickly as possible, but we are still very, very far from meeting customer demand. Orders are fully booked, and shortages show no end.” The core implication is that even with accelerated capacity expansion, the supply-demand gap will persist for the next three to four years—not merely a short-term issue. 3) Hyperscale cloud providers are proactively sharing capital expenditure risk. Hurlston revealed that hyperscale cloud providers have agreed to assume part of the capital expenditure risk—“These hyperscale customers are willing to invest funding.” Since building new capacity typically takes three to five years, cloud providers are helping Lumentum hedge expansion risks through long-term agreements and customer prepayments, while securing future capacity allocation. 4) Growth drivers: OCS, 1.6T, and CPO/NPO Optical Circuit Switching (OCS): Transitioning from a complementary layer to a core revenue contributor, OCS is becoming Lumentum’s second growth curve. In Q4 FY2026, OCS shipments doubled sequentially, and backlog has surpassed $400 million. 1.6T transceivers: From early shipments to accelerated adoption. Lumentum began shipping 1.6T transceivers as planned in Q4 FY2026, with some modules using internal CW lasers. Most cloud transceiver shipments remain at 800G; management expects adoption of 1.6T to accelerate starting in Q1 FY2027. CPO/NPO: High-power laser shipments to begin in H2 2027. For CPO, leading customers’ production plans remain on track, with strengthened demand signals. Lumentum expects to begin large-scale shipments of high-power Scale-up lasers in H2 2027 for 2028 deployments. This continues to reflect the phase where the surge in data center construction is now translating into tangible demand for optical interconnects. https://t.co/tyv9Hyy77w