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$IREN closed around $27 on Friday, a fresh 52-week low and roughly 65% off its high near $77. The whole neocloud group has been getting hit since Gartner said more than 80% of GPU rental providers won't survive as independent companies by 2030, and $CRWV bonds trading near 15% yields didn't help. What makes IREN a little tougher for me is the spending plan. They're talking about $25 to $30 billion of capex next fiscal year, and with rates this high people are worried about how that gets funded. The SemiAnalysis report on outages at their BC sites is still hanging over it too. I don't think the story is dead. The Microsoft contract is real and AI revenue is now bigger than mining for them. But I'm not in a rush to catch this one. I'd want to see the neocloud names stop making new lows first, and I'm watching what $META says about capex Wednesday since that's basically their customers' budget.

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