The constraint was always power. Lets remind ourselves of the $IREN thesis. Software scales instantly. You ship code and a billion people can use it the same afternoon. The physical world does not work that way. Every model, every agent, every robot needs somewhere to actually run. That somewhere needs a building, a cooling system, a fibre connection and, above all, electricity delivered at industrial scale. And electricity is the part nobody can rush. → Interconnection queues in the US run years deep → Permitting a new substation takes three to five years → Transmission upgrades take longer still → None of it moves faster because you have money That last point is the whole thesis. Capital cannot compress a permitting timeline. A hyperscaler with $100bn of cash and no secured power is years behind a company that locked its grid connections in 2022 :) IREN locked up 5GW+ Secured, across Texas, Oklahoma, British Columbia, Spain and Australia. That the asset and everything else is execution on top of it. And they are executing. → 3MW of self-built AI capacity twelve months ago, 480MW by the end of this year → AI Cloud revenue overtook bitcoin mining for the first time last quarter → AI Cloud runs at an 87% gross margin → $1bn of ARR operating today, targeting over $4bn by December The bit that tells you the moat is real is pricing. → The existing book is priced at roughly $13.3M per MW → Recent contracts are landing above $20M per MW → Live discussions are around $25M → Three year contract pricing is up 125% since November Prices do not rise 125% in a market with spare supply lmao. Obviously they rise when buyers are competing for something scarce. Same story in the contract terms. → Microsoft prepaid 20% of a $9.7bn contract → Contracts signed since June prepay 45 to 55% of the GPU cost → Customers now fund half the hardware before it is switched on Customers do not prepay half a billion dollars for capacity they think they can get elsewhere. And the customer list went from three names to ten in a single quarter. Microsoft, NVIDIA, Cohere, Perplexity, Figure AI, Fal AI, Higgsfield AI and more. The concentration risk everyone flagged twelve months ago has largely dissolved. Then there is NVIDIA, who took a warrant for 30M shares at $70 that only vests fully on deployment of 600,000 GPUs. The chipmaker tied its own capital to IREN's build schedule. Nobody structures a deal that way for capacity they expect to sit idle. What has to go right: → FUNDING That's the whole list and the hardest part in all of this. So the thesis is simple. → The scarce thing is grid connected power → IREN owns 5GW of it → Demand is outrunning supply → Pricing proves it, up 125% since November → Customers are prepaying half the hardware to secure it → The chipmaker has its own money on the outcome The hard part is already done. What's left is building and funding, and they have shown they can do both. Patience and conviction. nfa, long AI Buildout, long $IREN ⚡
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