Do We Even Want to Own Individual Stocks Anymore? I like to reflect on things as they happen and be brutally harsh with myself, analyzing my returns, my losses, and the lessons I’ve learned. It’s equally important to distinguish where I made money because I had a genuine edge and where I was simply lucky. Looking at 2026, some of the world’s most sophisticated hedge funds, employing the best analysts with enormous resources, are down YTD, and most have underperformed the index. It makes me wonder, especially after watching $INTC collapse 30% in a single day, whether we should even bother owning individual stocks, particularly large companies that everyone follows and where others have vastly more resources than we do. The more I contemplate this, the more I believe we should limit individual stock investments to perhaps four or five exceptional opportunities a year, where we have a genuine edge. I’m talking about special situations: $AMZN falling toward $200 during a macro selloff, $ZIM trading below its cash value, $WGS following its earnings selloff, $STAA following its buyout offer, shorting $UVXY when volatility reaches extreme levels, or buying oil options when the U.S. is assembling a massive military force. There may also be occasional opportunities in overlooked small caps. Another lesson: Stay away from speculative growth stocks. If 2021 didn’t teach you that, perhaps 2026 will. Any company being sold as “the future of something” without strong earnings to back it up is a speculative growth stock. Buying lottery tickets cannot be an investment strategy. I don’t know a single growth stock investor who consistently told you the right time to get in and, more importantly, the right time to get out. Just look at the subscription sellers promoting growth stocks, some of whom are reportedly down 30% YTD. Can you afford that kind of drawdown? I don’t think you can. And to all of you who love speculative growth stocks that can double or lose most of their value, be brutally honest with yourselves. Net net, are you actually up or down on these lottery tickets? Forget the fantasy, the occasional 100% winner, and the stocks you conveniently forget to mention. Look at your entire P&L. Are you making money or losing money? No fantasies. Outside these special situations, why take single-stock risk? If I believe technology will outperform, I can simply own $QQQ. If I like a particular sector, I can own a sector ETF and avoid waking up to a 30% collapse in one of my holdings. Suppose I offered you an investment with a 50% chance of gaining 30% tomorrow and a 50% chance of losing 30%. Would you really want to own it? I’ve already significantly reduced my individual stock recommendations in 2026, and I intend to reduce them even further in 2027. I doubt I’ll make more than four or five individual stock or special situation recommendations next year. Even if 2027 turns out to be an exceptionally opportunistic year, I expect to publish no more than six write-ups on investment ideas that I consider truly exceptional. The rest of the time, I believe it’s probably smarter to own index ETFs. Not necessarily broad market indices. Sector ETFs can be just as useful when I have a strong view on a particular industry.
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