What most people miss when comparing Variational to Hyperliquid is how different their user bases actually are. Hyperliquid had a much wealthier user base early on, with a significant amount of sophisticated traders, whales and market makers using the platform. Many of those participants ultimately received a large share of the airdrop as well. Variational is much more retail-heavy. That distinction matters a lot for the airdrop imo. A market maker or already wealthy trader receiving a six- or seven-figure allocation has much less urgency to immediately sell than a retail farmer for whom the airdrop represents a meaningful share of their net worth or a way to recover trading losses. So even if the headline distribution looks similar, the post-airdrop behavior could be completely different. I’d therefore expect Variational to face materially higher initial sell pressure than Hyperliquid did, simply because of who owns the tokens. That doesn’t mean the token can’t perform well long term but I think the holder base will likely need to go through a redistribution phase first.
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