Placing hundreds of thousands of dollars in bets before the election poll was released led to suspicions that a Polymarket trader had access to insider information. But the trader’s transaction history tells a different story. The New York Times previously highlighted a trader who profited over $257,000 from Senate election bets in Nebraska and Michigan, with most positions placed before the Times/Siena poll was published. The Block then traced the wallet linked to this account—and discovered the trader had long been placing large bets well before the election case gained attention. They had previously wagered over $1 million on Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the 2025 New York City mayoral election. Even shortly before the election bets, the wallet lost approximately $783,000 in 26 hours of trading on Hyperliquid. Another detail overlooked in the initial assumptions: Kalshi records show about $153,000 in Nebraska bets were placed just 10 minutes after the Times/Siena poll was released. However, it remains unconfirmed whether these transactions originated from the same trader. Two experts reviewing these findings concluded that this pattern more closely resembles a whale accustomed to placing large, self-driven bets based on personal predictions. While the use of insider information cannot be ruled out entirely, substantial profits alone are insufficient evidence of insider trading. #InsiderTrading #OnChain #DeFi