Kain on why you need deep liquidity to trust a prediction-market price "Tom Lee's about to buy $1 billion worth of $ETH, so the price of ETH is going to go up. And so you want a place that allows you to buy as much exposure to that upcoming ETH as possible. Me as a buyer, I get a great price for it." "If you could put $1 billion into the Polymarket, I could write it going to be over 3K, then you just load up, you keep loading up. This is the irony of prediction markets. For the actual person expressing that information, the deeper the market, the better." "Eventually you will move it, and then eventually people will be like, hey, wait a second, Austin just put $1 billion into the ETH. Like, what does he know? And then the world knows whatever you've now expressed." "If you put $5 in and it moves the market and is now going to be above 3K, who can trust that information? But if you put 1 billion in to move it over 3K, then it's probably real. You probably are Tom Lee." "Liquidity is good for our ability to trust in prediction markets. The more liquid it is, the more real the price is on some very critical dimension."
Laura ShinShare
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