It’s very similar to the previous whale ETH that was forced into a flat position by institutions— isn’t that just big fish eating small fish? Leopold Aschenbrenner, a 24-year-old former OpenAI researcher, founded Situational Awareness with $225 million in initial funding, betting on AI infrastructure. In two years, he grew it to $45 billion, achieving cumulative gains of over 1,000%. He used 4x leverage, but AI stocks dropped 35%–47% this month. Mathematically, a 4x leveraged position facing a 25% drawdown is already wiped out—ultimately, Citadel picked up the pieces at a discount. It reminds me of the classic film Margin Call, which depicts an investment bank discovering at midnight that its leveraged positions exceed its risk tolerance. The executives hold an all-night meeting and decide to liquidate all toxic assets at market open—regardless of price or counterparty—just to survive. The hunter doesn’t chase prey. It simply designs the terrain: tightening liquidity, amplifying volatility, and leveraging margin call mechanisms as traps—then waits for prey to walk right in. In the movie, there’s a line: “There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat.” Leopold thought he was playing a game about AI. In reality, he was playing a game about capital structure—and he wasn’t the one setting the rules. In someone else’s casino, you’re always the chip—not the house.
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