$ETH heading lower as planned - same for $BTC and other majors, moving in tandem with TradFi. We’re likely in the final leg down (as posted yesterday). On LTF we’ll see several smaller rallies and reversals along the way. Late summer (likely July) remains our tentative target for final capitulation - we’re still finalizing the analysis and running the models. fyi. there is a 25% chance that the first leg up of the bull will start earlier. First chart below is the 2H LTF showing the trend break. Second chart is the 4D level - still in overall bull trend but expected to test the lower range of 2.1K–2K on ETH and 65K–68K on BTC. Key points on ETH: - Rejected at YTD VWAP 2.45K - Now below the C1 Anchored VWAP (from last year bull start) at 3K (first major level on the next bull) - Volume profile shows solid support at 2.1K–2K - Institutions and smart money are buying on % allocations (see earlier post) - Accumulations like this take time - Retail remains distracted with DeFi stories and is largely sitting out while big players are in early stages of buying majors and select value coins. - ETH Price is controlled in 2.5k-2k range during accumulation. - Ps. as we pointed out believe bottom was in on feb 6th at 1.8K, 2K is the level.