The market is pricing $ETH on L1 fee revenue. That's like valuing TCP/IP on packet fees. Looking at @ethereum $ETH - Settlement dominance: $167.3B stablecoins + $1T+/yr in annual flows secured on Ethereum - Ecosystem moat: $56B TVL is 9.5× the nearest competitor, 60%+ of all DeFi - Supply lock: 35.8M ETH (~30% of circulating) staked permanently off market at 2.8–3.5%/yr - $ETH price -51.7% from Aug 2025 ATHs at ~$2,344 - App ecosystem fees: $3.82B/yr, L1 only generates $332M, L2s carry the rest post-EIP-4844. - @wmougayar's framework: ETH as a "public-good" settlement layer capturing the bulk of L1 fees. Traditional models put 2yr fair value at ~$2,315 roughly where ETH trades today. Short-term growth is already priced in. Long-term isn't. The 2 biggest factors are stablecoin supply on Ethereum doubling to $240B + Glamsterdam shipping H1 2026 gets you to $12,000–$38,000 by 2033 None of that is priced in. $ETH is a sized for the long term, not the next quarter.