📊 4 Charts on how energy agencies are reading the Hormuz supply crisis 1️⃣ Spot and futures have decoupled.North Sea Brent spot nearly hit $150, breaking the 2008 record. The futures curve is in severe backwardation. Middle East supply is acutely tight in the near term. 2️⃣ Oil markets are fragmenting into a source glut and destination shortage. IEA data shows global inventories fell 85mb in March, but stranded Middle Eastern crude drove ~100mb builds in floating storage and near-capacity onshore stocks, creating a glut at origin and a supply crunch downstream. 3️⃣ Downstream fuel shortages are driving extreme margin expansion. Asian refinery runs are set to drop ~6mb/d in April amid feedstock disruption and infrastructure damage, with export curbs tightening supply and pushing jet fuel and diesel crack spreads to multi-year or record highs. 4️⃣ Demand views are diverging sharply as price-driven destruction risks rise. The IEA now sees global demand actually contracting by 0.08mb/d in 2026 (with a 1.5mb/d Q2 drop, worst since COVID), while the EIA still expects modest growth of 0.6mb/d. OPEC remains the outlier, maintaining a robust 1.4mb/d growth call and framing any weakness as transitory. 🔗 Full Conflict Dashboard: https://t.co/RNYIWU3JMA