After a 50% plunge, the biggest AI compute bubble will reveal its hand next Tuesday! Tuesday, November 10 1. CoreWeave $CRWV Post-market earnings release for Q3 2026. Market consensus expects revenue of approximately $3.54 billion (+159% YoY) and an EPS loss of $1.17–$1.45. The company previously guided for Q3 revenue of $3.45–$3.6 billion, adjusted operating profit of $200–$260 million, interest expense of $860–$940 million, and capital expenditures of $11.5–$13.5 billion. Full-year revenue guidance has been raised to $12.4–$13.2 billion, with a year-end annualized revenue run rate target of $18.5–$19.5 billion and active power capacity target exceeding 1.85 GW. Key focus: GPU cluster deployment pace, order backlog (previously ~$104 billion, with over $25 billion in new commitments added early in Q3), actual utilization rates and customer delivery execution, along with interest and debt pressures. Recent shares have declined over 50% from highs, with a market cap of ~$25 billion; analyst price targets are generally above $130, reflecting cautious sentiment but still mostly buy ratings. While AI compute demand remains strong, rising financing costs, delivery delays, and recent earnings from competitors like IREN have made markets more skeptical of debt-fueled expansion. Historically, post-earnings volatility is high, with average one-week declines of ~15%. Thursday, November 12 2. Applied Materials $AMAT Post-market earnings release for FY2026 Q4 (and full year). Market consensus expects revenue of ~$10.3 billion and EPS of ~$4.06. Company guidance: revenue ~$10.25 billion (±$500 million), non-GAAP EPS ~$4.02 (±$0.20). Previously emphasized strong demand in advanced nodes, HBM, DRAM, and advanced packaging; packaging business growth forecast for 2026 raised to over 70%, with full-year semiconductor systems growth expected above 30%. Key focus: Orders—especially for advanced nodes, HBM, and wafer fab equipment—China exposure changes, and management’s latest outlook on 2027 equipment demand and customer visibility (already referencing 2030). Shares have recently pulled back ~50% from highs, with a market cap of ~$260 billion and a forward P/E of ~19x; average analyst price target is ~$630, with predominantly strong buy ratings. AI-driven equipment demand remains the core narrative, but expectations are already high; despite beating estimates last quarter, the stock still fell. Historical post-earnings volatility averages ±6%. 3. Nebius $NBIS Pre-market earnings release for Q3 2026. Market consensus expects revenue of ~$900–930 million (+520% YoY) and an EPS loss of $0.61–$0.72. Year-end ARR target: $7–9 billion (reached $3 billion by end of June); full-year revenue guidance: $3–3.4 billion; capital expenditures: $20–25 billion; contracted power target: ~5 GW. The investor day in late October provided no earnings guidance; the stock dropped 17% within a week and ~29% over the past month. Last quarter’s revenue was $9.12 billion (+24.8%) with EPS of $3.50 (+41%), yet the stock still fell—market pricing already assumes perfection is mandatory. Additionally, short interest stands at ~20%; any initial short squeeze rebound should not be mistaken for a fundamental turnaround. Analyst price target is ~$280; sentiment has shifted from euphoria to greater focus on execution and capital expenditure returns. Will next week bring a short squeeze frenzy—or a guillotine?