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$COIN missed on revenue and on adjusted EBITDA. Revenue of $1.22 billion came in about 5% below consensus. Adjusted EBITDA of $208 million was short by about 30%. The reported loss of $1.36 a share is mostly not the business. Coinbase holds crypto on its own balance sheet and prices fell through the quarter, so it wrote those holdings down. The net loss was $359 million and the loss without the revaluation was $105 million. A 5% revenue miss became a 30% profit miss because most of the costs do not move with revenue. Coinbase cut adjusted expenses 9% and it was not enough. The shortfall was in subscription and services, the higher margin half of the business and the one meant to hold up when trading does not. It was below the range Coinbase had guided to itself. Some USDC deals closed later in the quarter than expected and staking revenue declined even as the amount staked grew. This is because prices and reward rates were lower. Transaction revenue through July 26 was $130 million, which is $5 million a day. The second quarter ran at $6.6 million a day. Coinbase guided subscription and services to roughly flat next quarter. A lot of that rests on crypto prices. Do they hold?

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