COINBASE Q2 EARNINGS: THE NUMBERS ARE WEAK, BUT WASHINGTON IS THE REAL STORY Wall Street expects a sluggish Q2 from Coinbase (COIN) when it reports Thursday after the close. Trading volumes plunged in April and May, with Barclays estimating just $178B expectation. Bitcoin lost ~14% in Q2, Ether dropped ~25%. Analysts have slashed estimates across the board. But here's what actually matters: Subscription and services revenue ($USDC interest, staking, custody) is expected to provide a cushion. Prediction markets are one of Coinbase's fastest-growing businesses. Derivatives (international perps + Deribit) are a long-term opportunity. The biggest wildcard: The CLARITY Act. Benchmark believes recent movement on ethics provisions has materially improved the odds of Senate passage. Barclays is more cautious - the legislative calendar is tight. Compass Point warns that Coinbase's valuation could come under pressure if the bill stalls. COIN traded ~1.7% lower at $165 ahead of the report. $COIN