China’s visit to the U.S.: Key themes to watch China’s upcoming visit to the U.S. has already prompted markets to price in three key areas: the business delegation, specific deals, and whether tech restrictions may see marginal easing. Reuters has explicitly named several high-probability candidates for the business delegation: BYD, CATL, Xiaomi, Gotion, Hisense, Wanxiang Group, Bank of China, and COFCO. Note that the final delegation has not yet been confirmed—these are media-confirmed candidates under consideration, not the official list. Additionally, Innolight has been separately highlighted by media. If it is ultimately confirmed to join the delegation, I will pay close attention, as it relates to the AI data center and optical communications supply chain. If large internet and AI companies such as Alibaba, Baidu, or Tencent are later added to the delegation, the market’s trading logic will further expand to assess whether there is negotiating room on AI, cloud, and chip export restrictions. This remains my current hypothesis; we’ll continue monitoring the list over the coming days. From the companies already disclosed, there is a clear mapping to U.S. industry sectors: Innolight (AI optical communications): COHR / LITE / AAOI / MRVL; upstream InP materials can be monitored via AXTI. CATL / BYD / Gotion (batteries, EVs, energy storage): F / GM / ALB / TSLA. Notably, Ford already has a battery technology licensing partnership with CATL, making F’s correlation more direct. Xiaomi / Hisense (consumer electronics, smart devices): QCOM / ARM—primarily reflecting Chinese consumer electronics demand and U.S. chip suppliers’ exposure to the Chinese market. Wanxiang Group (automotive components, new energy supply chain): F / GM and broader U.S. auto industry. COFCO (agricultural trade): ADM / BG. If concrete purchases of U.S. soybeans, corn, and other agricultural products materialize, COFCO could be a key execution channel to watch. Reuters has confirmed that agricultural procurement is a major agenda item for these talks. If Alibaba, Baidu, or similar AI firms are later added to the delegation, the market exposure would further expand to NVDA / AMD / AVGO / MRVL, as investors begin pricing in the possibility of marginal relaxation in AI chip export controls. Beijing is currently pushing for further delays in certain U.S. tech restrictions, while the U.S. seeks increased Chinese exports of rare earths and critical minerals. Specific procurement deals may serve as the most direct catalysts. Key areas to monitor include: aircraft (BA), agriculture (ADM / BG), energy (LNG / XOM / CVX), and potential easing of rare earth restrictions impacting downstream U.S. manufacturing in automotive, semiconductors, and aerospace. Another area to watch: Apple / CXMT. If negotiations lead to the U.S. permitting Apple to source DRAM from CXMT (ChangXin) in China, this would represent a potential supply chain diversification and cost advantage for AAPL, but could exert competitive pressure on MU. If future discussions extend to YMTC’s NAND chips, SNDK would face more direct implications. This remains a potential deal—not yet a confirmed outcome. Boeing: Reuters reports that preliminary discussions have already covered 200 aircraft, with potential agreements expanding to 500 737 MAXs and dozens of wide-body jets. If a major order is announced on September 24, BA would be one of the most direct beneficiaries. Over the next few days, watch who ultimately joins the business delegation, what conditions are exchanged, and whether substantial procurement deals or adjustments to tech restrictions are finalized.