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Rates are giving back a little of the CPI move this morning. Chips are still lagging and bitcoin:native is below $70k. On my morning screen, $SPY was +0.20% premarket, $RSP +0.30%, $QQQ flat and $SOXX −0.64%. The 2Y was down 3.2 bps to 4.85% while the 10Y barely moved at 5.125%. A small bull steepener going into PPI. October PPI at 8:30 ET. Consensus is +0.4% headline and +0.3% core m/m. Everyone already expects a cooldown from September. If core surprises lower and the 2Y actually gives back more of this week’s move, I’ll watch whether chips can finally catch a bid. A hot print with the 2Y back up puts that morning relief at risk. I’m watching what the market does with those prints. Can $NVDA hold a bid after the Jensen exit, and can $SOXX start outperforming $QQQ alongside it? bitcoin:native around $69.3k on my screen. I want to see $70k reclaimed and held. If the bounce stalls below it, $66–68k is the next area I’m watching. Still a nimble tape. I’d give the post-PPI move more weight if it holds through the cash open.

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