source avatarramble|crypto x AI

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Got slapped hard by the market—it’s time to reflect. Trading is like business. If you watch this old interview with Pan Shiyi closely, it aligns remarkably well with the mindset of an options seller. Both real estate and options selling involve high leverage, high inventory, reliance on turnover, and prolonged exposure to market risk. Acquiring land → Keep selling puts, bullish on the economy. Rent instead of selling → Stop opening new positions, gradually reduce negative Gamma, let existing positions continue to harvest Theta. Stick to core locations → Embrace core assets, avoid meme coins and shill tokens. Don’t chase big wins, prepare for the worst, be a pessimistic conservative → Control leverage, monitor Delta, know when to take profits. Even during economic upswings, every five years, a batch of developers gets eliminated → Many have been liquidated even in bull markets. The interview was likely recorded between 2013 and 2017, when real estate was still booming and central SOEs were bidding aggressively for land. Pan Shiyi frequently met with clients from traditional manufacturing and sensed the trend of “state advancement, private retreat.” He began scaling back early—many called him timid, overly conservative, too pessimistic. This reminds me of those who sold BTC at $100K and ETH at $3,000 a few years ago. Looking back after the pandemic, Pan stands out as one of the few real estate tycoons who nearly escaped unscathed—his risk management was truly exceptional. It makes me reflect on two deep-rooted flaws in myself: greed and stubbornness. Greed: Failing to take profits at highs, instead increasing risk exposure. Stubbornness: Hesitating to cut losses at lows, clinging on hoping for a cycle turnaround. I feel the crypto market has now reached地狱难度 (hell mode). The early-stage红利 (windfalls) are gone; it’s no longer about hunting speculators—it’s now hunting true believers. To survive long-term, you must learn to be cautious, conservative, and build positions gradually—moving into stable U.S. equities is the sustainable path.

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