In the evening, I wrote that Waller drew the line for a 50-basis-point hike at a core CPI of 0.3%. At 21:30, the actual figure came in at exactly 0.3%, while market expectations were at 0.2%. Within one minute, $BTC surged to $74,770, then plunged to $73,524.73—just $15 above the low of $73,510 set on November 9 at 05:55. In that one-minute window, 917 BTC were traded; only the one-minute period at 05:55 on 11/9 (1,013 BTC) saw higher volume in the past two days. On Polymarket, the probability of a 50-basis-point hike in December was at 4.45% at 21:29, but rose to as high as 10.3% within a few minutes. Not breaking the prior low doesn’t mean the bottom is secure; doubling the probability of a 50-basis-point hike doesn’t mean a 50-basis-point hike in December is guaranteed.