A 25bps hike is currently priced in for December FOMC. Before we got todays numbers, Fed Waller supported a 25bps hike even if inflation improved. But he was considering a 50bps hike if core remained sticky at 0.3%. Core came in at 0.3% so it looks like the FOMC discussion will be around if 50bps is needed. Just because energy inflation is slowing down doesn’t mean business will stop passing on earlier cost increases. Waller mentioned Fed research that suggests higher energy costs could keep pushing up other prices into 2027 especially if oil prices stay high. I like following Waller because he clearly wants to give forward guidance and isn't afraid to speak his mind.
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