$BTC | AI Credit x Overheated CPI @Globalflows laid out their clear market risk thesis: AI credit cracking at the edge of the supply chain, a tech rotation, and rates skewed higher - this morning's CPI print and @WarrenPies' read put numbers to it: AI Credit | Cracks Showing ○ CDS up: $GOOGL $META $ORCL ○ Same for $NVDA and $CRWV ○ Off highs: $CRWV -74% ○ $ORCL -66%, $NVDA -30% ○ $NVDA -4% on Jensen probe Sector Rotation | Tech -> Staples ○ $XLK -15% in a month ○ $XLP +9% in a month ○ $RSP +3% vs $SPY -4% ○ His model: 75% = rate risk October CPI | Rates Skew Higher ○ Core +0.3%, food +0.5% ○ Supercore >0.4%, 3rd month ○ Two hikes by March: 74% ○ Real rate ~0% (2022: -5%) Anthropic IPO | Next Capital Challenge ○ Roadshow live: $70-78/share ○ Up to $64.35B raised ○ His view: a liquidity test ○ $QQQ -12% off its high BTC Cycle Path | Lows Don't Wait for Pivots ○ 2018 low: 4d pre-last hike ○ 2022 low: 8mo pre-last hike ○ By 1st cut: +223% / +299% ○ $BTC now: $74K, 11-wk low 3 of 4 @Globalflows calls have confirmed, and the 4th (a 2022 replay) rhymes in shape, maybe not size. In both hiking-cycles, $BTC bottomed before the Fed stopped.