The last time Hyperliquid whales held a short position this large was October 2025. $BTC ended that month around $109.5K before dropping to $84.7K by November 22. That was a 23% decline in roughly three weeks. If Bitcoin repeats that move from the $75.7K level where the position flip was identified, the downside target would sit around $58.3K. Interestingly, that level is almost identical to the June 30 low of $58.6K. A similar decline would therefore put Bitcoin back near its 2026 bottom. Following the same timeline, such a move could unfold in early December. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are adding pressure. They recorded $1.28B in outflows during the week ending November 6, while total assets fell from $109.3B to $95.9B between October 21 and November 6. Base case: #BTC revisits the $58K–$60K range by early December if selling pressure continues. Invalidation: A weekly close above $80K would weaken this bearish setup. However, historical similarities are not guarantees. ETF flows, liquidity and derivatives positioning will determine whether this scenario develops or fails.