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Now let’s make a big drama about the Fed hiking rates in December, which will be priced in... who would have thought... The economic projections from September were signaling further hikes this year, followed by cuts early next year. The task force Kevin Warsh put into practice has been quite accurate so far, so I expect it to continue with more precise economic data. That’s why I still believe that after this December hike we will get a round of cuts, maybe not in January, but in March, 100% with a 50 basis point cut. We’ll get either one big cut in March or two small ones, one in January and one in March. We will see. The main point remains that the economic projections were on point. Since they predict lower inflation starting early next year plus strong unemployment, the only thing left is for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates again easing the AI debt pressure, which is the biggest concern the Fed is following right now. Therefore it becomes more improbable by the day that the Fed will hike rates to add even more pressure, and even more improbable that it will hike by 50 basis points. We will still get hikes through 2027, don’t get me wrong, but not before a batch of cuts. As mentioned the Fed’s current decision making is volatile but trending toward easing. That means rate cuts will remain predominant while hikes pop up here and there to slow things down, but the end goal will be the same just delayed. This is why the cycle is going to extend into H2 2027, after which we will see a reset in the AI cycle, bringing every market down alongside it, from which the Fed can do another full force QE, printing trillions of dollars and sparking a second AI cycle, plus crypto this time.

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