October CPI came in hotter than expected: +0.4% on the month vs. +0.3% forecast, with core at +0.3% vs. +0.2%. Year-over-year figures were not released due to the October 2025 government shutdown. It's the last inflation read before the Fed meets on December 9, and odds of a December hike now sit at 100%, per CME Group. Bitcoin is trading around $73,700, well below the ~$82,300 average cost of U.S. ETF holders. Reclaiming that level is the next thing to watch.
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