The market wanted core CPI to cool to 0.2%. It printed 0.3% for the third straight month. Headline came in at 0.4% vs 0.3% expected. The 2Y is at 4.70%, up 13.6 bps on the session, against +5.4 bps in the 10Y. Clean bear flattener. Crude is still sliding and the front end is getting hit anyway. Yesterday’s leaders are giving back the most. $SOXX −2.56%, $QQQ −0.97%, $SPY −0.28% premarket. Equal weight is basically flat. That’s where I’m looking at the open. If selling spreads beyond chips and the 2Y holds near 4.70%, yesterday’s bounce is in trouble. If yields give back some of the jump and SOXX/QQQ stops bleeding, there’s room for the first move to unwind. $BTC is back near $74k, close to the bottom of my $73–76k range. I want to see how it trades around $73k if we get another leg down. $CRWV after the close. I’m watching how much contracted capacity actually comes online and how much funding it takes to get there.
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