Tonight’s U.S. CPI data will only release the monthly rate, not the annual rate. Due to the U.S. government shutdown last October, there is no data for October last year, so the year-over-year rate from October last year to October this year cannot be calculated. Based on current core monthly figures, major investment banks predict that October’s rate will decline slightly compared to September, as September saw unusually high prices for airfare, hotels, and rent. Additionally, October includes the biannual reset of Medicare prices, which is certain to exert downward pressure. Potential risks remain: prices for electronics and travel-related services have not yet stabilized. Currently, the market is pricing in a 36% probability of 0.3% or higher (even 0.25%, rounded up, counts as 0.3%). (Also, in August and September, most investment banks underestimated CPI—will this continue in October?) Furthermore, if the core reading comes in at 0.2%, we’ll need to examine whether it’s 0.15% rounded to 0.2% or 0.24% rounded to 0.2%. But since the data release will occur outside regular hours, we won’t update the decimal precision in real time this month. ------------- From a trading perspective, the probability of a December rate hike is already priced in at 80%. Therefore, even if CPI comes in hotter than expected, there’s limited room—only about 10-15 basis points—for further upward adjustment in rate hike expectations. However, if the data unexpectedly comes in cooler (e.g., 0.14% rounded to 0.1%), such a dovish surprise could significantly reduce the probability of a hike and trigger a larger upward price movement.