Something interesting is happening with Bitcoin on chain right now. In early October, 97.5% of short-term holder supply was in profit. By November 4, that had collapsed to just 38%. Now look at Bitcoin's key on chain cost bases: - Short-term holders: $75.8K - True Market Mean: $77.6K - Overall Realised Price: $54K With BTC around $74K, the average recent buyer is underwater, but price remains well above the broader market's realized cost basis. Here's where it gets interesting, in both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, Bitcoin spent months trading BELOW its realized price during capitulation. We haven't seen that this cycle. So are we seeing a structurally stronger market entering re-accumulation, or is the real capitulation still ahead? Personally, I want to see BTC reclaim $75.8K to $77.6K before getting too excited. The data is interesting, but the bottom isn't confirmed just yet, there is always still a possibility of bearish scenarios and a smart trader / investor is aware of this.