Polymarket may be on a path toward an IPO, but is it 100% certain? I don’t think so. Since everyone believes the major shareholders behind the scenes are now calling the shots, they will ultimately act in their own financial interest. If the valuation from a TGE exceeds that of an IPO and makes it easier for equity investors to exit, Polymarket’s primary shareholders will opt for a TGE. Of course, this assumes the following conditions: 1. Cryptocurrency re-enters a new bull market—for example, BTC breaks $100,000—leading to higher market risk appetite and elevated project valuations. 2. Polymarket and Kalshi suffer major adverse legal rulings in ongoing lawsuits with various U.S. states, making the IPO route significantly more difficult. 3. The Democratic-led House and Senate launch investigations into the legality and compliance of contracts tied to political and sporting events. Since Democrats took power, executing an IPO strategy has become more challenging, as the major shareholders appear to have no close ties to the Democratic Party—and, most critically, Trump family interests are involved. Even if an IPO were to happen, the market’s narrative around this sector has already lost its luster. After billions in funding and years of development, the so-called “internet truth machine” narrative has not been fully realized; its revenue model still mirrors that of traditional gambling: sports betting. So, can Polymarket realistically maintain a $20 billion market cap after an IPO? That seems questionable. I’m not trying to convince myself or others to keep trading, nor am I dismissing this sector—I’m simply offering an objective analysis of the current situation. Perhaps prediction markets will eventually break through their constraints and achieve greater success, but at least over the next one to two years, the “internet truth” narrative is unlikely to be fully realized. Of course, the probability of a TGE is hard to judge, given how many uncontrollable factors are involved. Before the World Cup, I already published an analysis of Polymarket’s position: The token is something Kalshi cannot replicate—it’s Polymarket’s unique nuclear weapon. Conducting a TGE before the World Cup and leveraging the token’s role in community airdrops would allow its global platform to fully capitalize on the World Cup opportunity, dramatically increasing users, trading volume, and profits—and reclaiming its leadership position. Then announce a second-phase airdrop plan that includes PERPS. Because of the wealth-generation effect from Phase One, PERPS would rapidly overtake HyperLiquid as the leading platform. The unexpected data from the 2026 World Cup, combined with the second-phase airdrop driving massive PERPS trading volume, would solidify Polymarket’s position as the sector leader. This would provide stronger financial backing and more time to expand in the U.S. market—and lay a strong foundation for an IPO in 2027 or 2028. Whether choosing an IPO or a TGE, the World Cup should have been prioritized. But frankly, they failed to fully leverage this opportunity. Moreover, they set high airdrop expectations and then deliberately undermined them. They also seem to have had little meaningful communication with the community or users regarding fees. This has left users confused and unable to understand their current direction or future vision. I hope they learn to understand their users—and help users understand them.