I've always tracked Global Net Liquidity closely. Bitcoin is extremely correlated to it. When GNL rises, Bitcoin's bull markets get escape velocity. 2011–13: GNL +19%. BTC +49,330%. 2015–17: GNL +31%. BTC +10,847%. 2018–21: GNL +54%. BTC +1,987%. 2022–25: GNL fell 6% and made lower highs the entire cycle. BTC +690%, its weakest bull cycle in history. During this bear market, GNL put in brief higher lows on the shorter timeframes. That likely helped keep this bear shallower. BTC's deepest close so far is −53%, vs −77% to −84% in every prior bear. Going forward, Fed QT is over and the balance sheet is up about $150B from a year ago. The PBOC has been adding liquidity for months. The dollar is down about 6% from its January 2025 peak. The headwind is rate hikes. A December Fed hike is being priced in. If GNL turns those short-term higher lows into a higher-timeframe uptrend, I expect a more traditional bull structure and a stronger cycle than the last one. bitcoin:native