this quant framework is f*cking dangerous if you love pretty backtests the document starts from one brutal fact: the more strategies you test, the easier it becomes to find a “winner” by luck with no real edge: 10 strategies → 4.6% chance of Sharpe ≥ 2.0 100 → 36.9% 500 → 86.5% 1,000 → 98.2% and the example is even uglier: in-sample Sharpe: 2.30 out-of-sample Sharpe: 0.12 that is why the real quant workflow is not: find the best chart it is: randomize factor-strip test the null control multiple testing validate out-of-sample because randomness will always manufacture attractive backtests the edge is proving your result survived it
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