Tomorrow's US CPI has no annual inflation number. Traders will trade it anyway, 8:30 ET. Why: the BLS never collected October 2025 prices during the shutdown, so there's no base month. Only the month-over-month change gets published. What the market is working with: Headline consensus: +0.3% m/m (September: +0.6%) Core consensus: +0.2% m/m (September: +0.3%) Major bank forecasts sit in a tight 0.2%-0.3% band on both. Why a 0.1-point miss matters: CME pricing has a December Fed hike near 77%, up from 66% before Friday's payrolls. One analyst's scenario: core at 0.2% or lower pulls the odds under 70%; 0.3% or higher and the hike looks locked. That's a scenario, not a realized move. So the trade isn't "is inflation high?" It's the gap between the print and what's already priced. Friday showed it: payrolls came in at +165K against a far lower forecast, hike odds jumped, and gold fell on the day. Three habits around a release like this: 1. Spreads and slippage widen in the first seconds. Backtests rarely show it. 2. Don't judge the move by the first candle. 3. Fix your size before the number, not after. Free weekly report: link in bio. ⚠ Forex and CFD trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not financial advice.