source avatarArdi

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I’ll be the optimist everybody needs. Bitcoin’s two previous cycles took almost exactly a year to go from the high to the low. That followed expansions of roughly 130x and 20x. This cycle, we got a compressed 7x expansion and an apathetic top. Yet all of a sudden, the expectation is now that we need almost 20% longer to bottom. A much smaller expansion, but an even longer decline. Why is that the more convincing explanation? If Q4 was always expected to be a corrective period, was it realistic to expect Bitcoin to rally 50% from the lows and then protect a weekly swing sitting just 13% below the highs? We expected a correction. Now we’re getting one, and suddenly the entire recovery is being questioned. To me, a bottom earlier in the year, followed by a break of the prior weekly lower high and an embedded correction to form a higher low, remains a very reasonable sequence. An embedded correction is a correction within the expansion phase. Losing a local weekly pivot doesn’t automatically mean we’re heading back through the cycle lows. That doesn’t mean price can’t go lower from here. It means further downside and a bottom already being in are not contradictory. You can’t keep pointing to diminishing returns on the way up, then refuse to consider that the timing of the decline might change as well.

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