The Fed decides on rates again on October 28. Since the start of the year, WTI crude is up about 73%, and household inflation expectations have risen by half a percentage point. Core inflation sits where it started the year, but September's CPI, covered here last week, came in above forecasts on both the annual headline and core rates. Yields have climbed too. The two-year Treasury yield, which tracks where traders expect policy rates to go, has risen by more than a full percentage point this year, to 4.8%. It now sits well above the 4% top of the Fed's target range, even after the hike on September 16. Bitcoin is up about 10% since that hike. Should oil keep pushing inflation expectations higher, a second hike would be harder to rule out.