Do you think you’re making money because you’ve done deep research? Or could it just be that you happened to catch the market’s uptrend? In a bull market, you can make money by simply looking at a few projects, leading you to believe you have exceptional insight. In a bear market, the opposite is true: the more you research, the more optimistic you become; the more optimistic you are, the harder it is to sell. You buy the dip, then add more when it halves—until you end up as the last holder. Many people only research why a project is worth buying, but never ask why the market might still fall. Bull markets make people mistake luck for skill. Bear markets make people mistake obsession for conviction.