11.9 The Great Bear Market Begins 1. Last week, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke below key previous levels and fell beneath the 20-week moving average—U.S. equities have officially entered a bear market. 2. I’ve consistently stated that BTC’s recent rally was a mid-bear-market rebound, not the start of a bull market. When U.S. stocks enter a bear phase, crypto cannot escape its impact; when U.S. markets reach their bear market bottom, BTC at $30,000–$40,000 is reasonable. 3. Over the next six months, most traders will face liquidation and exit the market—every rally is merely an opportunity to escape.