WEEKLY JOURNAL: THIS WEEK MY BIAS WAS WRONG 5 trades. 2 wins, 1 loss, 2 break-evens. +0.1R. Longs: 1 out of 4 worked. The only short paid +0.6R. My bias for the week was simply wrong, and the journal is a pure reflection of it. What I saw. For the first time since the 87K top, BTC broke a range to the upside, and it did it from a key daily demand zone. When I see those two things together, I expect an expansion to the upside. Most of the time the expansion arrives. This time it didn't, and every plan built on it failed. What happened. One full stop loss, -1R. Two trades paid me some peanuts before getting stopped at break even. I closed the LIT long before it moved lower. But the real problem is not the trades I took. It's the shorts I didn't take because of what I saw in the market. On Monday, in the Market Weather Bulletin, I planned a short on BTC. It played out perfectly. I didn't take it, because the range breakout looked truly legit. Could I have done better? I'm not sure. Compression followed by expansion is one of the key concepts in the way I read the market, and most of the time it works. This time it didn't. That doesn't make the concept wrong. It means my job is to see faster when it's failing. This is what Best Loser Wins is really about. The best traders are not the ones who avoid being wrong. They are the ones who are wrong without getting hurt. Look at the numbers. A week where everything I expected failed, and I closed it flat. No loss bigger than 1R. October closed at +23.1R, my third month in a row above 20R, with the same rule. The market owes you nothing. Even a concept that works most of the time will fail, and you don't get to choose when. What you choose is how much it costs you. This week, being wrong cost me nothing. Next week: same system, same risk, quicker to admit when the expansion is not coming. Pop