Bitcoin is back around $76,000 and the metals have steadied a bit at the same time. I keep coming back to that split. Gold is still more of a China read, and the latest Chinese injections have flattened near term even if the longer path is different. Bitcoin is still trading more like the Western side, where the momentum keeps fading. The headline liquidity number edged a little higher this week to US$196.2 trillion, still about $400 billion under the recent peak. The Shadow Monetary Base has softened again and is back down to US$107.7 trillion, with the three-month annualised rate now about 9 per cent lower. The pause we saw last week has not held. The collateral multiplier is still near a record at 1.82, so the stock can stay up even while the actual creation underneath is falling again. Bond volatility has settled in the 95-100 range, still well clear of the quiet band it sat in through the middle of the year. The letter is that gap this week. Headline can edge higher without the base recovering. I’m still cautious near-term on Bitcoin and more constructive on gold and silver. I'd keep using pullbacks as a way to accumulate. Treating this as a new cycle still does not make sense to me. https://t.co/g5m69HxFyR