Will BTC return to a bear market? Let’s look at one data point: the RPLR-M (Realized Profit-Loss Ratio Momentum) helps identify trend turning points by showing periods when the profit-loss ratio is accelerating upward or downward. When viewed over longer timeframes, this indicator is most informative in three ways: how long the red or green zones persist, whether the peak of the green line is declining, and whether the trough of the red line is narrowing. Typically, at the start of a bear market, the red line trough reaches its lowest point, indicating that losses are accelerating compared to previous periods. Afterward, even as prices make new lows, the trough begins to narrow—signaling that new downward moves are no longer triggering panic selling on the same scale as before, until eventually the trend “turns green.” This entire sequence constitutes one full bear market cycle. In 2018–2019, this process lasted 14 months (Area A in the chart); in 2021–2023, it lasted 13 months; and this cycle has lasted 11 months. From both the “time” criterion and the narrowing of the red line trough after reaching its initial extreme, the prolonged period of losses and panic fully meets the standard criteria for a cyclical bear market. Why emphasize this? Because historically, once the indicator turns green (entering Area B), it has never returned to Area A to restart another full bear market cycle. Although there have been intermittent “red” reversals within Area B, these typically last only briefly and are accompanied by a declining acceleration in profits (a declining peak of the green line). Therefore, regarding concerns that a U.S. stock market crash could push BTC to new lows, I am not nearly as pessimistic or anxious. If you experienced the March 12 crash of 2020 triggered by the pandemic, you should now feel calmer and more composed. Rome wasn’t built in a day. Despite all the turbulence, each wave of panic, each transfer of holdings, and each restoration of market confidence has been building momentum for the next phase of the trend. Of course, historical patterns don’t guarantee future repetition. Macroeconomic uncertainties still exist, and BTC could still experience extreme volatility beyond expectations. But based on current data alone, I have not yet seen any evidence sufficient to overturn this cyclical recovery.