During the 2020-21 bull run bitcoin was trading significantly higher than fair value (green line) during a large portion of the cycle. During the 2024-2025 bull run bitcoin barely even touched fair value and has been stuck between the support (red line) and fair value channel since 2022. Today we’re sitting only 11% above support and a trip to resistance (purple line) would require a 771% price surge. Bitcoin historically spends very little time near this red line and in the last 4 years has barely broken fair value. No model is perfect but sentiment right now feels exactly the same as this chart: people have lost money and hope and are beginning to get bored and fearful with current market conditions. What’s most important to me is that while price is only 9% higher today than at the 2021 peak, our position in these channels is hugely different than 5 years ago. There’s a ton of open space above us right now and bitcoin is just waiting for the right conditions to start taking back off again. Disclosure: my entire net worth is exposed to bitcoin and this is not financial advice.