Futures price a second Fed hike by December. Bitcoin's last hiking cycle is a useful reference. • Mar–Dec 2022, 7 hikes: BTC −57% • Dec 2022–Jul 2023, 4 more hikes: BTC +65% • Since the Sept 16 hike: BTC +8% Hikes alone didn't decide it. Bitcoin rallied through the second half of the last cycle while the Fed was still hiking. Long term expectations are what drives the big trends.
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