What if the biggest threat to Bitcoin right now is also what could eventually drive its next bull run? I’m looking at the government bond market..and there’s a problem developing that I think deserves more attention. Governments keep borrowing. Investors demand higher yields to lend them money. That makes existing debt more expensive to refinance, while higher yields can also put pressure on banks and financial markets. Now here’s where Bitcoin gets interesting..If that pressure becomes serious enough, central banks may have to step in to keep financial markets functioning. But there’s a big difference b/w providing emergency liquidity and actually making monetary policy easier. One might prevent a crisis. The other could create conditions for risk assets, including Bitcoin, to recover. So when I look at BTC struggling around 84k to 85k, I’m not automatically seeing weakness or an inevitable breakout. I’m wondering whether we’re watching the early stages of a much bigger conflict b/w government borrowing, inflation and the need to keep financial markets stable. Bitcoin has a fixed supply..but that alone doesn’t guarantee people will buy it. The real question is what happens first..does pressure in the bond market drain more liquidity from Bitcoin, or does it eventually force a policy response that brings capital back? That’s the development worth watching.
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