Day 914: what Bitcoin’s halving clock can and cannot tell you 777, 889 and 924. That is how many days after each halving the last three Bitcoin bear markets bottomed. Today is day 914 after the 2024 halving. Cycle models turn this into a “bottom window”, sometimes with a buy date attached. Before relying on one, look at what it rests on. Three cycles is a very small sample. The earliest and latest bottoms sit 147 days apart, almost five months. A window that wide says less than it appears to. The market has also changed. Earlier cycles had no spot Bitcoin ETFs. This year US funds saw outflows on nearly half of trading days, yet still took in money overall: $2.6B in September, net outflows so far in October. Macro matters more to institutional capital than the halving clock. The Fed raised rates in September, and the market now prices a December hike at roughly 90%. A cycle model does not see that. The halving tells you something about timing. It says little about price, and nothing about how much drawdown you can hold.